U of M Researchers Report U.S. Electrical Supply is Highly Vulnerable in Next Pandemic
Systematic study of coal industry and its supply chain reveals pressing concerns
MINNEAPOLIS / ST. PAUL (Nov. 20, 2008) — Reliable mining and delivery of coal, which generates nearly half the nation’s electricity, must be safeguarded to keep water and sewerage systems running, lights on, and vaccine and critical drugs available during an inevitable pandemic, according to a new University of Minnesota report.
To date, no state or federal plan has adequately addressed how to protect the health of coal miners and the people who support their work during a pandemic, an oversight that must be corrected, said one of the authors, international infectious disease expert Michael T. Osterholm, Ph.D., M.P.H., in “Pandemic Influenza, Electricity, and the Coal Supply: Addressing Crucial Preparedness Gaps in the United States.”
Osterholm is director of the University’s Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP) and a professor in the School of Public Health. Co-author is Nicholas S. Kelley, M.S.P.H., a research assistant at CIDRAP.
The report is the first to conceptualize what happens when a pandemic disrupts the fuel supply chain for electricity, the cornerstone of public health and organizational continuity. The authors outline a four-point plan to reduce the risk of losing electricity, particularly in large portions of the Midwest and eastern states during a pandemic, and prevent additional chaos, illness, and death.
“Pandemics are like earthquakes, hurricanes, and tsunamis. They occur. We believe one of our critical challenges during the next pandemic is to keep the lights on in large areas of the United States. Unless we address potential shortages in our nation’s coal supply, we're looking at a real problem,” Osterholm said.
The analysis is based on a comprehensive review of power industry reports; government hearings, pandemic plans, reports, and guidance; reports on a derailment that affected coal shipments from the Wyoming-Montana Powder River Basin in 2005; and accounts of the 1918-19 pandemic. The 2005 derailment, which led to dangerously low stocks of coal at power plants, including one in Georgia near the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, illustrated how fragile the coal supply chain is today and how long it took for the industry to recover from even a single, geographically isolated incident. A pandemic is expected to reduce coal shipments, given the substantial numbers of workers who will to be out sick at the same time at mines, transport companies, and power plants.
The authors challenge policymakers and industry leaders to take the following steps:
- Build and maintain coal stocks at power plant year-round at the same level the industry maintains for summer months.
- Place coal miners and supporting infrastructure personnel in the highest priority levels for pandemic response. The federal government’s plans overlook these essential workers.
- Plan for disruptions in the coal supply chain. The nation can expect to see unprecedented disruptions of global, national, and regional supply chains as well as employee absenteeism and must plan for a response that goes beyond what is typically found in business continuity plans.
- Anticipate and develop strategies for responding to disruptions in electrical service. The nation must be ready to handle typically anticipated power disruptions related to such events as earthquakes, weather, and fire and a simultaneous pandemic response.
The situation with coal is one of many examples of fragile supply chains that heighten concerns about the effects of large numbers of people becoming sick around the world at the same time, given the interconnectedness of the global economy. To help businesses prepare, CIDRAP sponsors the CIDRAP Business Source, a comprehensive information service that keeps subscribers up to date on infectious disease threats and their impact on the bottom line for business. The report is available here: www.cidrapsource.com/reports/coal.
The Academic Health Center is home to the University of Minnesota’s six health professional schools and colleges as well as several health-related centers and institutes. Founded in 1851, the University is one of the oldest and largest land grant institutions in the country. The AHC prepares the new health professionals who improve the health of communities, discover and deliver new treatments and cures, and strengthen the health economy. For more information, visit www.ahc.umn.edu.
Contact:
Laura Stroup, Academic Health Center, 612-624-5680 or stro0481@umn.edu
Sara E. Martin, Academic Health Center, 612-626-7037 or buss@umn.edu
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